Math 141
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
- Text: Probability and Statistics Course Notes, available in bookstore.
- Class Meetings: M, W, F at 1pm in Lib 204.
Tuesday lab sessions are in ETC 211.
- Homework assignments will be due on Fridays.
Homework will have
substantial weight in evaluation: it is not optional!
- There will be several quizzes and a final exam.
- Final Exam: Tuesday, 9 May, 6pm in L204
Office Hours
M,W,F 10-11am
I am usually in my office at other times, as well.
Nonlinear Models
R examples
Bootstrapping
Residuals Examples
Multiple Regression Example
BP analysis
Cook's Distance Examples
Guns and Babies
Factor + Dummy Variable Examples
Overfitting Examples
F test vs t test example
Maximum Likelihood
Likelihood CI's
Poisson loglinear models
Bayesian Inference Example
RadioCarbon dating
Carbon Dating links
Age determinations by
radiocarbon content: checks with samples of known age
Arnold, J.R.; Libby, W.F. (1949). Science. 110 (2869): 678-680.
IntCal13 Report on
the most recent calibration curve.
Northern Hemisphere atmospheric radiocarbon calibration curve
Assignments
- Due Friday, 27 January
Chapter 2 Exercises 2,3 (page 19).
- Due Friday, 3 Feb.
Read Chapter 3. Homework will be assigned in the Lab sessions.
The lab notes will be Random Permutations and Binomial
Probability Computations.
- Due Friday, 10 Feb.
Read Ch 4. Do Sec. 4.4 Exercises 1, 2, 3, 6.
Lab: Expected values, exercises under "Life Expectancy".
- Due Friday, 17 Feb.
Read Chapter 5.
Sec 4.4, Exercise 8.
Sec 5.2, Exercises 1, 2, 3.
Lab: R Markdown
- Due Friday, 24 Feb.
Read Chapter 6.
sec 6.8 Exercises 1,2.
Lab: Inference for the Binomial
Read
The Truth Wears Off (Is there something wrong with the
scientific method?) and comment briefly.
Another interesting article:
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
- Due Friday 3 Mar.
Read Chapters 7, 8.
Lab: Inference for Normal Distributions
Note Quiz Friday on Hypothesis Tests
- Due Friday, 10 Mar.
Read Chapter 9.
Lab: Graphical Methods in R
Note ReQuiz Friday on Hypothesis Tests
- Due Friday, 24 Mar.
Lab: Basic Least squares and Inference
- Due Friday, 31 Mar.
Lab: Multiple Regression
Quiz Friday! Normal quantile plots!
- Due Friday 7 Apr.
Lab: anova() and the F-test
- Due Friday, 21 Apr.
Lab: Logistic Regression, assignment distributed in class
Quiz! Friday, F-tests, t-tests and CI's for the linear model.
Reed Data Resources